u.s. foreign policy | Tom Mullen Talks Freedom

Monday April 6 will mark the end of President Trump’s 10-day extension of the 5-day extension of his March 21 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to either agree to a peace deal or face destruction of its energy infrastructure. Trump claims productive “talks” are occurring between the adversaries; Iran denies them. It is increasingly clear that what Trump is calling “talks” are in reality his administration’s attempts to contact the Iranian government through intermediaries, primarily Pakistan.

The peace deal Trump is insisting on contains all the terms presented to Iran before the war, including complete cessation of uranium enrichment, surrender of all previously enriched uranium, curtailment of their missile program, cessation of sponsoring proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis), and cessation of any attempt to build a nuclear weapon.

Apart from the last item, the terms comprised an offer the Iranians couldn’t accept, rather than one they couldn’t refuse, and appeared to be merely a pretense for the U.S. and Israel to launch the war they planned regardless. That they attacked Iran while the latter was meeting internally to discuss the terms all but confirms that.

In addition to making clear they are no longer interested in negotiating with the United States, the Iranians have issued their own set of demands to end hostilities: cessation of attacks and a binding agreement(s) it will not be attacked again, reparations for the damages caused by the attacks, recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of its non-military nuclear program.

Although these also seem like “an offer the U.S. can’t accept,” they are eminently reasonable demands outside of control of the strait. The Strait of Hormuz is only partially in Iran’s territorial waters, the southern half belonging to Oman. Iran has already expressed a willingness to consider joint custody of the strait and would likely also consider an international arrangement if its other demands were met.

Iran’s demands are reasonable. Washington’s demands are not. The latter would leave Iran utterly defenseless against Israel and the U.S., both of which have repeatedly demonstrated their predisposition to attack it.

Should Trump follow through on his threats to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and possibly its desalination plants on Monday, Iran has vowed to do likewise to the energy and desalination infrastructure of every GCC state hosting American military bases. And despite Trump’s claims that their missile capability has been “dramatically curtailed,” they have since demonstrated a robust capability in their missile attacks on Tel Aviv immediately following Trump’s address.

If Trump and Iran follow through on their threats, a significant portion of the world’s energy infrastructure will be destroyed. The civilian populations of Iran and the GCC states will be devastated. Tens of millions could die. And the rest of the world would undoubtedly plunge into a global economic depression that could kill tens of millions more.

Contrary to Trump’s claims that oil from the Strait of Hormuz is largely not imported into the U.S. and therefore of no concern to the U.S., Americans are already suffering from the effects of Iran’s closure of the strait. This is basic economics. When the world supply of oil decreases, the price paid worldwide increases. Regardless of whether the particular oil exported through the strait normally reaches the U.S., those who do import that oil will compete with U.S. importers for what the latter do import when supply is reduced or eliminated from the strait.

That is why American importers are currently paying double what they paid for a barrel of oil just three months ago. And that price will rise dramatically if the supply of oil from the region is indefinitely reduced due to destruction of the region’s energy infrastructure rather than merely interrupted by Iran’s blockade.

This would seem far too high a price to bring Iran to heel, but for anyone arguing it is “worth it” in the long run, there is a very important question one must answer: Will it actually bring Iran to heel?

Read the rest on Tom’s Substack…

Tom Mullen is the author of Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness? Part One and host of the Tom Mullen Talks Freedom podcast.

Most conservatives abhor Barack Obama’s presidency. They believe that Obama is leading the United States to its ruin and that nothing is more important than defeating him in the next election. They believe that our very way of life is threated if they do not succeed. I don’t happen to share their opinion that there is a substantive difference between the Bush and Obama administrations, or that anything today would be different if John McCain had been elected.

However, let’s say for the sake of argument that conservatives are correct. The Obama administration is bent on altering American society in fundamental and irreversible ways. Nothing is more important than removing him from office.

Still, conservatives do not look to violently overthrow the present administration. They recognize that, whether the choice was a wise or a foolish one, a majority of those Americans who cared enough to vote chose Barack Obama as their president. So, no matter how relentlessly the Republican Party attacks Obama through its vast network of think tanks, talking heads, and media outlets, no matter how nasty or allegedly unfair conservative talk radio may be, when all is said and done, conservative efforts to remove Obama from office are peaceful.

But what if Obama had not been elected?

What if John McCain had won the election, but was then removed from office in a coup d’état fomented by covert agents of a foreign government? What if that government then installed Barack Obama as president, overriding the wishes of the American electorate? What if that foreign government propped up the Obama administration for decades and American citizens were unable to depose him peacefully through the electoral process?

What if Americans decided to rebel against this tyranny and overthrow Obama in a revolution? What if the foreign government called the American rebels insurgents or terrorists for removing the tyrant, when it was obvious to the whole world that the Americans had been justified in deposing Obama as a usurper backed by foreign interests?

What if, after the revolution, Americans elected a leader that they felt represented their values but that people in other countries did not like? What if the foreign government that had previously overthrown John McCain joined with other countries and imposed sanctions upon Americans, using military force to prevent voluntary trade between the United States and other countries? What if that foreign government sent billions of dollars to Mexico, allowing her to arm herself with nuclear weapons, but forbade the United States to similarly arm herself in her own defense?

What if that same foreign government armed and supported Canada in waging a decade-long war against the United States? What if that government then turned on Canada and invaded her, setting up military bases on her soil, with tens of thousands of troops capable of striking at the United States at any moment?

What if Americans resented the sanctions and threats of violence directed at them and responded with threatening statements of their own? What if Americans were vilified as terrorists for opposing these aggressive actions with manly firmness? What if the United States had not invaded another country in over 200 years, but was still characterized as a threat to the whole world by a government that routinely invaded other nations, had already overthrown the U.S. government once in the past, had armed America’s neighbors with weapons of mass destruction, and regularly issued official government statements calling for “regime change” in the United States?

What if there were credible rumors that a preemptive nuclear strike by Mexico was imminent? What if the foreign government pledged its full support for Mexico and warned Americans not to attempt to arm themselves adequately to prevent this unprovoked attack? What if it was apparent to all Americans that they had no chance to fight their enemies in a conventional war and win?

What would Americans be prepared to do then?

For more thought-provoking “What Ifs?” see here, here, and here.

Tom Mullen is the author of A Return to Common Sense: Reawakening Liberty in the Inhabitants of America.