Eight days after threatening on Easter Sunday to end Iran’s civilization should it not open the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump on Monday began blockading the strait himself. He also threatened to “seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas.”
This latter threat, which if carried out would amount to acts of war against the country of origin of the vessel(s), would include Russian and Chinese ships.
It is one thing to demand the strait be opened and, when Iran refused, to “close it harder” yourself. It is quite another to declare your intention to commit acts of war against the two most powerful countries in the world besides the United States, both with significant nuclear arsenals.
Fortunately, April 14 turned out to be another “TACO Tuesday” as previously sanctioned ship Rich Starry, bound for China and carrying a Chinese crew, successfully exited the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials explained its inaction based upon the ship having loaded its cargo in a United Arab Emirates port, rather than an Iranian port, and having not paid a toll to Iran. The ship therefore did not meet U.S. criteria for stoppage.
Whatever. That the U.S. did not commit any acts of war against a Chinese-crewed ship bound for China is a good thing. Iran has been allowing the ships of its allies to navigate the strait since the beginning of the war. It remains to be seen what will happen if a Russian or Chinese ship which does meet the U.S. criteria attempts to leave the gulf. The Murlikishan, another Chinese-crewed ship under a foreign flag and eventually bound for China, is currently in the gulf.
The blockade is the latest in a series of erratic attempts by President Trump to find an exit ramp from a war even he clearly realizes was a major blunder. The problem is that no matter which direction Trump goes in, the Iranian’s have the upper hand.
His threat to “end Iran’s civilization” by bombing their energy plants, desalination plants, and other civilian infrastructure was countered by Iran’s threat to do likewise to the GCC states. While this wouldn’t save Iran from devastation, it would effectively take the entire world down with it as about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply would no longer merely be interrupted by a temporary blockade but destroyed. The U.S. can’t afford a global depression. Iran’s capability to take down the global economy effectively gives them a trump card (intended) on military escalation.
Neither will Trump’s blockade be effective. Trump was willing to go to the extremes he did on Easter Sunday precisely because Iran’s own closure of the Strait of Hormuz was already damaging the world economy and that damage would increase exponentially the longer the closure went on. That fact hasn’t changed. Trump is saying that if Iran won’t let its enemies ships pass through the strait, then the U.S. won’t let its friends pass, either.
That not only doesn’t solve the economic problems caused by Iran’s closure; it makes them worse. It just means that even less oil, gas, and fertilizer is leaving the Persian Gulf than under Iran’s blockade alone. If Iran’s friends can no longer obtain those commodities from the Persian Gulf, they are going to compete with the U.S. and its allies for them in other markets, driving up the price for everyone. Iran wins again.
The madness of King Donald is driven by desperation. He cannot admit to himself he made a mistake starting the war in the first place nor face the reality that his tried-and-true bag of tricks – including making extreme demands and then pivoting to a more reasonable but advantageous position – is not going to get him out of this. Iran simply responds with the Art of the No Deal and leaves Trump flailing.
Iran has all the cards in this hand precisely because the administration has given them nothing to lose. It is true that the U.S. and Israel have destroyed a huge percentage of Iran’s above ground capabilities. But Iran anticipated that eventuality for decades. They’ve been preparing to survive this war since before Trump started hosting The Apprentice.
Given that all Iran must do to win is survive, maintain its capabilities to control the Strait, and retain its ability to respond to external attacks, it had a huge advantage before the first shot was fired. On the other hand, for the U.S. to win, it must either change the entire structure of Iranian government or truly eliminate Iran’s missile and nuclear enrichment capabilities, both of which may be far enough underground that even nuclear weapons cannot reach them.
Thus, the U.S. stumbles from one strategy to the next, trying to find one that has any leverage. It has lately moved several thousand ground troops to the region either for appearances or as a contingency. But again, what will the winning strategy be on the ground? Conquering Iran would take hundreds of thousands of troops if it were possible for the U.S. at all. Anything short of that would be short lived and indecisive. Indecisive means Iran wins again.
It isn’t only the emperor who has lost touch with reality but the empire itself. The 20th century was the American century. The U.S. built its global empire fighting and defeating the Soviet Union in the Cold War. While there were plenty of blunders to point to and at least one defeat in Vietnam, the empire in general achieved its strategic goals. Whether the average American would have been better off without the empire is an argument for another day. But on its own terms, the empire set reasonable goals and achieved them.
This century tells a different story.
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Tom Mullen is the author of Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness? Part One and host of the Tom Mullen Talks Freedom podcast.
