Monday April 6 will mark the end of President Trump’s 10-day extension of the 5-day extension of his March 21 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to either agree to a peace deal or face destruction of its energy infrastructure. Trump claims productive “talks” are occurring between the adversaries; Iran denies them. It is increasingly clear that what Trump is calling “talks” are in reality his administration’s attempts to contact the Iranian government through intermediaries, primarily Pakistan.

The peace deal Trump is insisting on contains all the terms presented to Iran before the war, including complete cessation of uranium enrichment, surrender of all previously enriched uranium, curtailment of their missile program, cessation of sponsoring proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis), and cessation of any attempt to build a nuclear weapon.

Apart from the last item, the terms comprised an offer the Iranians couldn’t accept, rather than one they couldn’t refuse, and appeared to be merely a pretense for the U.S. and Israel to launch the war they planned regardless. That they attacked Iran while the latter was meeting internally to discuss the terms all but confirms that.

In addition to making clear they are no longer interested in negotiating with the United States, the Iranians have issued their own set of demands to end hostilities: cessation of attacks and a binding agreement(s) it will not be attacked again, reparations for the damages caused by the attacks, recognition of its control over the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of its non-military nuclear program.

Although these also seem like “an offer the U.S. can’t accept,” they are eminently reasonable demands outside of control of the strait. The Strait of Hormuz is only partially in Iran’s territorial waters, the southern half belonging to Oman. Iran has already expressed a willingness to consider joint custody of the strait and would likely also consider an international arrangement if its other demands were met.

Iran’s demands are reasonable. Washington’s demands are not. The latter would leave Iran utterly defenseless against Israel and the U.S., both of which have repeatedly demonstrated their predisposition to attack it.

Should Trump follow through on his threats to destroy Iran’s energy infrastructure and possibly its desalination plants on Monday, Iran has vowed to do likewise to the energy and desalination infrastructure of every GCC state hosting American military bases. And despite Trump’s claims that their missile capability has been “dramatically curtailed,” they have since demonstrated a robust capability in their missile attacks on Tel Aviv immediately following Trump’s address.

If Trump and Iran follow through on their threats, a significant portion of the world’s energy infrastructure will be destroyed. The civilian populations of Iran and the GCC states will be devastated. Tens of millions could die. And the rest of the world would undoubtedly plunge into a global economic depression that could kill tens of millions more.

Contrary to Trump’s claims that oil from the Strait of Hormuz is largely not imported into the U.S. and therefore of no concern to the U.S., Americans are already suffering from the effects of Iran’s closure of the strait. This is basic economics. When the world supply of oil decreases, the price paid worldwide increases. Regardless of whether the particular oil exported through the strait normally reaches the U.S., those who do import that oil will compete with U.S. importers for what the latter do import when supply is reduced or eliminated from the strait.

That is why American importers are currently paying double what they paid for a barrel of oil just three months ago. And that price will rise dramatically if the supply of oil from the region is indefinitely reduced due to destruction of the region’s energy infrastructure rather than merely interrupted by Iran’s blockade.

This would seem far too high a price to bring Iran to heel, but for anyone arguing it is “worth it” in the long run, there is a very important question one must answer: Will it actually bring Iran to heel?

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Tom Mullen is the author of Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness? Part One and host of the Tom Mullen Talks Freedom podcast.