trade | Tom Mullen Talks Freedom

Equity markets continued to sell of Monday morning as Trump economic advisor Peter Navarro told CNBC that even a 0% tariff offer from Vietnam would not be enough for the Trump administration to change its tariff policy toward that country.

“Let’s take Vietnam. When they come to us and say ‘we’ll go to zero tariffs,’ that means nothing to us because it’s the nontariff cheating that matters,” said Navarro.

Non-tariff cheating refers to subsidizing domestic manufacturers, currency manipulation, and other measures designed to give a country’s domestic producers an advantage over potential exporters to that country.

Navarro’s comments seem to indicate the administration is committed to maintaining tariffs not only until trading partners lower or eliminate their own, but rather until no trade deficit at all exists between the U.S. and that country. This means that even countries with a natural comparative advantage in some export – or no need for many potential U.S. imports – may see U.S. importers of their products taxed indefinitely.

Stock market selloffs don’t always mean a recession is imminent, but they usually precede one. And to the extent that the input costs may be artificially higher for not only importers of finished goods but also of components for products manufactured in the U.S., a recession would be natural result.

While recessions are always painful those who go out of business or lose their jobs, they can be healthy for the economy as a whole in terms of liquidating malinvestment. According to the Austrian theory of the business cycle, recessions are the market’s way of redirecting unproductive deployments of capital to product ends. The mistakes are made during the artificial boom caused by monetary inflation by the central bank.

Artificially low interest rates and an overabundance of currency mislead entrepreneurs into expanding production more than real savings will support or investing in ventures that would not be profitable at all under natural market circumstances. The market eventually forces these mistakes to be acknowledged, and entrepreneurs must make the necessary adjustments – cutting production or filing for bankruptcy – so that the misallocated capital can flow to profitable projects.

Since all this takes time, recessions are painful. But at the end, capital is redirected towards better use instead of continuing to be wasted on unprofitable endeavors.

The problem with the tariff recession, if there is one, is that it is not being driven by natural market forces. As with Covid lockdowns, it is being imposed by government edict and therefore, also like Covid lockdowns, it has the potential to do the opposite of what a market-driven recession would do.

Read the rest on Tom’s Substack…

Tom Mullen is the author of It’s the Fed, Stupid and Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness?

Is Donald Trump reading this blog? If so, he’s not grasping that Trump Isn’t Hitler; He’s Hamilton and Reality Check: Trump’s Platform is Identical to Lincoln’s weren’t meant to be supportive of his mercantilist economic ideas. Maybe that’s on me, the writer.

Regardless, Trump invoked both Hamilton and Lincoln, starting at about the 10:30 mark, during a speech yesterday. He quotes Lincoln saying, “The abandonment of the protective policy by the American government will produce want and ruin among our people.”

Like all protectionists, Trump seems to have no idea about the concept of opportunity cost. He posits that tariffs on foreign imports will bring back manufacturing jobs, which he says “the nation” desperately needs. But it never occurs to him that when millions of Americans buy sneakers made in China for $100 instead of sneakers made in America for $200.00, they create other jobs with the $100 they save.

Trump’s speech confirms several of the arguments I make in my latest book. One can draw a virtually straight line from the Federalists, through the Whigs, to the Republicans. Obviously, there are nuances over such a long period, but the core tenets of protectionism, crony capitalism and central banking never cease to be the foundation this house is built on.

More importantly, these are the core tenets of true conservatism in the British-American tradition, since before the dawn of the industrial revolution. You can call Trump a lot of things, but “not a real conservative” just doesn’t hold water. Free markets, individual liberty and limited government are classical liberal ideas that have only resided within the conservative movement recently and have never been very welcome. That’s because they are all anathema to the conservative worldview that any change, from within or without, threatens to break the barriers between society and man’s dark nature.

The creative destruction of the market, the free movement of labor, capital and goods, and Jefferson’s libertarian principle that the government should be limited to “restrain men from injuring one another, shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement” is the opposite of conservatism. That’s why Hamilton feared and loathed Jefferson; that’s why Trump fears and loathes the free market. He’s a true conservative, like Hamilton, Lincoln, Coolidge, Hoover and the rest.

Tom Mullen is the author of Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness? Part One and A Return to Common Sense: Reawakening Liberty in the Inhabitants of America.