In their mad dash to create the long awaited general election narrative, media outlets have pronounced Ron Paul’s campaign dead. They now speculate about what his supporters may do when he drops out. The Associated Press reports that Romney has over ten times the delegates that Ron Paul has secured. Reuters reports that Paul is far behind in Wisconsin and that his supporters have finally conceded that he can’t win the nomination.
None of this is true. Romney has not secured 568 delegates. Hundreds of those delegates won’t be determined until Republican state conventions, many of which haven’t happened yet. As I’ve reported before, there is very credible evidence that Ron Paul will emerge from those conventions with the majority of delegates in many states. Texas, New York and California haven’t even held their primaries yet. Those three states alone control over four hundred delegates.
In many states, there is no cause-effect relationship between the popular vote and the delegates awarded to each candidate. Delegates are awarded via a completely separate process that doesn’t utilize the popular vote totals in any way. The purpose of the popular vote is to inform the eventual delegates of the preferences of voters in their states. That’s why many of those states allow Democrats and independents to vote. They want the eventual delegates to know who those voters prefer. That tells them who has the best chance to win in the general election.
In most years, the media can get away with reporting on the nomination contest as they are now. They can assume that the candidates will receive roughly the same percentage of delegates from each state as the percentage they received in the popular vote. That isn’t accurate reporting, but it usually comes out in the wash, especially as far as the winner is concerned. However, there are many things different in this year’s race and there is a good chance that much of the media is going to look silly come August.
Check out my interview with Dr. Lawrence Gelman and Rabbi Steven Rosenberg of the popular NYC/New Jersey area talk show, Talkback. The show focuses on today’s political, social, and economic issues from a traditional and unrelenting conservative perspective.
TAMPA, March 21, 2012 – Following Mitt Romney’s victory in Illinois, the media buzz on Ron Paul has focused on speculation about him dropping out of the race. According to many sources, his delegate strategy has failed and his fundraising is drying up.