jobs report | Tom Mullen Talks Freedom

“Dow closes at record high after blow-out jobs report” proclaimed NBC News on Saturday. It is not surprising the story would ignore all historical perspective, even history within the past few months. Incumbent presidents routinely take credit for job creation during their administrations and the gullible American public largely believes them. Perceived as prospectively continuing the policies of the Biden administration, good news from the jobs report helps Kamala Harris’s election chances.

It isn’t just ignoring that only two months ago, the Bureau of Labor statistics revised downward their previously reported number April 2023 – March 2024 by over 800,000 jobs (around 27 percent)*. It’s the surreal practice of even talking about supposed job creation over the past four years as if most of it weren’t just recovering jobs lost during the 2020 Covid lockdowns.

During March and April of 2020, the BLS reported net job losses of almost 22 million. Of course, these were not the type of job losses sustained during the 2008 financial crisis. These were people ordered to stay home by the government as part of a suite of responses to Covid that did nothing but harm.

As people were allowed to go back to work, there were several months for which the BLS reported millions of “jobs created.” But everyone understood these were mostly just people previously ordered to stay home returning to work. At least while Trump was still president.

But once Joe Biden was inaugurated, the national media started ignoring that reality and treating higher than usual jobs reports as vindication of “Bidenomics.” The truth is it took years just to recover the number of jobs lost during March-April 2020. The 22 million jobs reported lost during that period were not added back until September 2022.

That’s 31 straight months of zero jobs created on net while millions of undocumented mouths to feed entered the country. That is an economic blow the likes of which modern Americans have never experienced in their lifetimes. And the problems it created were by no means solved after September 2022 when the economy finally began adding new jobs on net. One cannot just start counting jobs created after September 2022 as “net jobs.” One also has to recognize the opportunity costs of the lockdowns.

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Tom Mullen is the author of It’s the Fed, Stupidand Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness?

It is the first week of the month, meaning we can expect a new ADP jobs report on Wednesday and the foolishly much-anticipated BLS jobs report on Friday. Based upon whether jobs created in March based on the report beats or misses expectations, President Biden will either gloat about the results or talk about something else.

Biden is certainly not unique in this respect. Every president since the report was created has tried to take credit for the jobs created during his administration. In most cases, pronouncements on this subject are carefully worded to read literally that “XXX jobs were created during my administration,” acknowledging that perhaps some other factors contributed to the supposed new jobs than the dear leader’s will and mighty actions alone.

So, at least we have that.

Nevertheless, the tweet we can expect from the president on Friday, BLS willing and the creek don’t rise, will imply heavily that it was his policies that are directly responsible for the hundreds of thousands of new jobs the report says were created the previous month.

There are several problems with this whole scenario, the most serious among them being that the Federal Reserve considers this report (or an alternative report based on the same methodology) in deciding how to conduct monetary policy going forward. Voters also take these reports seriously, to the extent they remember them on election day, and certainly the pronouncements of the incumbent president on the total number of jobs created during his previous term.

The first thing people should understand is the jobs report is largely fiction. It is not a literal tabulation of the total number of jobs created minus those lost. No one knows that information. Rather, the BLS conducts a phone survey, applies some formulas, and largely guesses how many jobs were created. It’s not as if there is nothing to it, but it is a very imprecise tool. That’s why it is common for the BLS to significantly adjust its findings for previous months while reporting the latest findings. And even the adjustments are based largely on voodoo.

Think climate change models. Or Covid mortality projections from March 2020. The BLS jobs report may or may not be quite that bad. But as the great Vincent Vega would say, “It’s the same ballpark.”

But while poking holes in the methodology of the jobs report is good fun for nonbelievers in the government religion, it misses the main point: trying to ‘create jobs’ in the first place is dumb. It is economically counterproductive. It’s the opposite of what any for-profit business should be trying to do.

Whether bringing a new product to market or simply trying to remain competitive in an existing market, businesses are constantly trying to produce more products at lower cost. The most significant costs for most businesses are labor costs. Therefore, businesses are constantly trying to produce more output with less employees.

Less jobs, not more.

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Tom Mullen is the author of It’s the Fed, Stupid and Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness?