President Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan has inspired criticism from both sides of the political spectrum. The right decries the unfairness to those who either paid off their student loans or worked their way through college without them. The left says the $10,000 ($20,000 for those who received Pell grants) is not enough to make a significant difference for most people struggling with paying back the loans.
But the one-time, lump sum forgiveness is only the tip of the iceberg on what Biden’s plan will do. The changes to the income-based loan repayment policies are much more significant and will create far more perverse incentives. Peter Schiff did an excellent analysis of this on a recent podcast.
The Obama era reorganization of student loans under government control set limits to the percentage of discretionary income one would have to pay. Borrowers were capped at a payment of 10 percent of all income over 150 percent of the poverty level. Any remaining principle after 20 years of those payments was forgiven.
Biden’s plan makes the following changes:
Discretionary income is redefined at income over 225 percent of poverty level
The percentage cap over this level is reduced from 10 percent to 5 percent
The maximum repayment term is reduced from 20 years to 10 years.
An example given on the White House’s fact sheet says, “A typical single public school teacher with an undergraduate degree (making $44,000 a year) would pay only $56 a month on their loans.” That translates to just $6,720 over the entire ten years the schoolteacher would be liable to make payments.
$6,720 is a mere 11 percent of the maximum total loan ($57,500) allowed to obtain a bachelor’s degree. The schoolteacher would be forgiven 89 percent of the principle and all of the interest under those circumstances.
For those who choose to pursue a graduate degree, the total loan amount allowed rises to $138,500. While it’s unlikely a graduate with a master’s or doctorate would earn that little, it is certainly not unheard of these days. In that case, the borrower would end up paying a mere 4.8 percent of the principle and none of the interest over the ten years.
The White House fact sheet provides a more likely scenario for those with advanced degrees. “A typical nurse (making $77,000 a year) who is married with two kids would pay only $61 a month on their undergraduate loans.” $77,000 is also a decent estimate for the average assistant professor or education administrator during the first ten years after graduation. That graduate would pay back just $7,320 or 5.2 percent of the principle and none of the interest over ten years.
As Schiff points out, not only does this incentivize people to max out the amount they borrow to go to college, it actually incentivizes people to pursue degrees with lower returns on investment (ROI) since that is where the maximum loan forgiveness occurs. Those who obtain STEM degrees equipping them to earn much higher incomes will pay a much larger percentage of the debt they incur.
Schiff’s analysis concentrates on the atrocious economics of the plan. But there is also a political element no one is talking about.
In another especially interesting podcast, Ryan McMaken and Tho Bishop discussed the “awakening” of the right to the fact the state is not necessarily their friend, not even those institutions within the state (law enforcement, intelligence, the military) they have typically revered.
To paraphrase part of their discussion, the 20th century myth that elections are a time when all Americans “come together” to make important decisions is giving way to what they described as the more realistic, 19th century perception: that politics and elections are about seizing power and using that power to help one’s friends and hurt one’s enemies. The Biden student loan plan couldn’t fit this framework better.
Obviously, no one who has the desire and ability to get into medical or engineering school will opt to pursue a degree with lower ROI simply because they will have to pay less of their loan principle. But the reverse is definitely true. Someone who might otherwise forego an advanced degree in sociology, education, or the much-maligned gender studies will now have a virtually irresistible incentive to enroll.
Guaranteed student loans themselves have grossly expanded academia and inflated the cost of higher education, even before the government took over and removed what little market discipline remained. The ratio of administrators to teachers and students has also exploded, providing jobs for the otherwise useless advanced degrees in education administration.
Biden’s plan will allow tuitions to make another leg up in price, underwriting another explosion in professors, administrators, and students who otherwise might be forced to do something more productive. And the political views and loyalties of that combined population is close to uniformly leftist. Economics departments were once exceptions to the rule. Increasingly, that is no longer true.
While it is virtually impossible to complete a university degree in any major without being exposed to a certain amount of leftist indoctrination, it is most intense in precisely the fields of study most likely to grow the fastest under Biden’s new plan. It will not only reward his friends but grow their ranks exponentially.
The Republican Party remains viable in American politics solely because of the federal system. Were decisions made based purely on a simple national majority, all decisions would be made by the Democratic Party. President Biden’s student loan plan has the potential to produce enough left-leaning voters to overcome those federal constraints. If Republicans want to remain politically relevant, they need to dismantle this monster at their earliest opportunity.
Tom Mullen is the author of It’s the Fed, Stupid and Where Do Conservatives and Liberals Come From? And What Ever Happened to Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness?